pwhl projections

resolve pwhl

Walter Cup outlook from a chronological team Elo, plus a four-metric advanced suite — HDSV+, Slot Threat, power-play, and physical — built from coordinate-level play-by-play across three seasons.

sections

outlook advanced resolve metrics methodology

release notes

2026-06-30

release notes

v1.0: Advanced metrics shipped. Walter Cup outlook live.

2026-06-30

methodology writeups

Two pieces: a team Elo over every PWHL game, Monte-Carlo simulated to Walter Cup odds; and a four-metric advanced suite built from coordinate-level play-by-play — high-danger chances defined by where shots actually came from, not box-score rules.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.

how the projections have held up

85%

of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly

29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171

World Cup ranked-probability score

tighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%

hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls

beat the closing market