pwhl projections

resolve pwhl

Walter Cup outlook from a chronological team Elo, plus a four-metric advanced suite — HDSV+, Slot Threat, power-play, and physical — built from coordinate-level play-by-play across three seasons.

the ways in

how the model has held up, across the site

85%of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus

RPS 0.171World Cup ranked-probability scoretighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)

54%hit rate on 165 NBA playoff callsbeat the closing market

These are the model's results wherever it has been scored so far. Per sport numbers replace them as each sport builds up a record.

what has changed

release notes

2026-06-30

release notes

v1.0: Advanced metrics shipped. Walter Cup outlook live.

2026-06-30

methodology writeups

Two pieces: a team Elo over every PWHL game, Monte-Carlo simulated to Walter Cup odds; and a four-metric advanced suite built from coordinate-level play-by-play — high-danger chances defined by where shots actually came from, not box-score rules.

soon

model retrospectives

what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.